What a weekend of results.
We have spoken the last two years about parity in D1A, highlighted in part by the fact that the last three seasons have produced three different champions. This year the parity is on full display. No one team has a perfect record. No one team has a tight grasp on #1. Any team could emerge as a majo player in the playoffs.
UCLA's win over Saint Mary's did a lot to shake things up. Arizona vs Army also did, to a certain extent.
Here's our logic on each rankings:
1. Life won big against a pretty strong team. Their only loss was to Queens. They remain #1.
2 &3. Navy didn't play and since they have already beaten Cal, they stay #2. Lindenwood didn't play this week and while their 1st team has only lost once, 28-24 to Life, they haven't played Navy so we're making a guess here. Lindenwood plays BYU in two weeks and Navy plays Mount St. Mary's this coming weekend. Those are important games in that they are both tough opponents but the rankings say they should win by 10 or so. So what if they lose or it's super close?
4. Cal beat BYU and did so fairly well. This was essentially as expected.
5 & 6. Central Washington beat Trinity Western, but that wasn't why they moved up—it just means they don't move down. CWU moves up because UCLA moves up and CWU beat UCLA. And UCLA beat Saint Mary's. So both move past the Gaels. The big question with Central Washington is that they lost to Saint Mary's. So couldn't we just say Saint Mary's beat CWU who beat UCLA? Yes, we could and that might be the correct answer. But it was a pretty undercooked CWU team that lost two weeks ago. They are a bit more mid-season now. So right now we go with the more recent results.
7-11. These teams are pretty close. Arizona lost close games to UCLA and Saint Mary's. Had they defeated Army we might have them at #8, but the close loss to Army keeps them behind Army and Saint Mary's. The biggest drop among these top-ranked teams is Saint Mary's and we could have had them ahead of Mount St. Mary's; however, MSM did beat Arizona by a larger margin than did the Gaels. Mount play Navy this week and they could solidify that #7 spot with a good result.
If we put all five of those teams in a league where they only played each other we'd have Saint Mary's at the top at 2-0 and Arizona 0-3 but with two close losses.
12 -15. Penn State lost to Navy by a close margin. BYU lost to a team that lost to Navy by more. So that's why we move BYU down—that and they have struggled to win games against the teams ranked above them. Mary Washington was cose to Penn State and we decided they should be ranked closer. Arkansas State, like BYU, needs to produce a result.
16. Davenport is doing just fine.
17.-25. None of these teams did anything to vault them up. Yes Utah State lost to a D1AA team, but it was a non-league game on the road and we decided not to ding them too much for that. Had we moved them down, Utah might well have dropped out of the Top 25 and we would have moved Cal State Long Beach there. CSULB is at 26 for us, with McKendree and San Diego State lurking, too.
So that's it. Does it make sense?
Well we will be changing the rankings, while CRAA/D1A will be making their final rankings this week. After that they will unleash their playoff seedings, which is what everyone is worried about. Everyone wants a home Round 1 game. UCLA, for example, thought they might have lost that chance when they lost to Central Washington. But then they beat Saint Mary's, and so a home playoff game is on the table again.
Coming up:
Central Washington at BYU
Army at Cal
Navy at Mount St. Mary's
Army at Cal Poly
BYU at Lindenwood
CSULB at San Diego State (two teams that have greatly improved. The winner likely enters the Top 25)
Saint Mary's at Cal
Arizona at Central Washington
Cal Poly at UCLA
Arkansas State at Davenport
Penn State at Life
Navy at Mary Washington
Ohio State at Penn State (too late in March to affect the seedings)
