So what is USA Head Coach Mike Tolkin thinking with his selections against Romania?

Certainly this is a very difficult team to select, since seven likely starters are out due to USA Rugby's tradeoff with the Aviva Premiership, and two more are injured. So he has to shift the remaining guys around and look for other guys, and still put out a team that can win perhaps their most crucial rankings test of the month. Why most crucial? Because it's a highly-winnable game on the road. IRB's World Rankings gives teams extra credit for winning on the road. And, despite the fact that the Mighty Oaks are ranked ahead of the Eagles, the last time the USA played Romania in Romania, the Eagles won 34-3.

If the USA wins this game by 1-14 points, the team's rankings points go up by 1.41 to 68.71 - good enough to move them from #18 to #16. If they win by 15 or more, they could improve to 69.88, which, if Georgia loses to Tonga, might be enough to get to #15. Even if they lose to Fiji and Tonga later on, that initial gain will be meaningful.

How does Mike Tolkin propose to accomplish this? By going against his normal MO.

Up front he has picked Nick Wallace, a mobile, strong-running prop who can scrummage pretty well, Phil Thiel, and Olive Kilifi. This is an experienced, powerful front row and they should be OK against a strong-scrumming Romania pack. The bench has two experienced guys who can give 15-20 minutes in Tom Coolican and Mate Moeakiola, and one new guy, Ben Tarr, who will be able to handle himself in the scrum. Tolkin essentially has no other choices here, but has to be happy with a powerful group of front-rowers. No surprises here.

In the second row, Tolkin had choices, in that he could have brought Brian Doyle and Graham Harriman on this tour. He didn't. He went, instead, for Tai Tuisamoa, who is a big lock (big enough that sometimes you wonder about how he can be lifted quickly in the lineout late in the game), and very aggressive. And he went with Lou Stanfill, who is savvy, ornery, intelligent, and dedicated. What this pair is is a second row ready for battle. They like battling in the middle of a ruck and playing defense. They will have to. On the bench is Greg Peterson, who could be a huge find. The 6-8 lock has grown up as an American sports fan, although he was playing rugby in Australia. He's a pro, he works very hard, and knows how to prepare himself. He looks like he could be a wonderful addition as an impact sub in this game - perhaps with 30 minutes to go - and if he does well there, you might see him start later on.

In the back row, Tolkin could have put Stanfill in at No. 8 and started Peterson at lock. Or he could have slotted in Kyle Sumsion, who is very physical and seems to end up in the middle of the action as often as not. He could have looked at John Cullen, who is still green but athletic and a guy who likes to challenge the opposition on offense and defense. He did none of these things. While Tolkin wants guys girded for battle in the second row, he wants to mix that aggression with some precision. Flanker John Quill is a very aggressive player who likes confrontation. It was against Romania two years ago that Quill earned his bones with the Eagles. Todd Clever is cut from the same cloth. They will relish the fight. But at No. 8 Matt Trouville is not a spectacular athlete. He's not the kind of guy who, a la Samu Manoa or Cam Dolan, will break through a backline and score a try from long range. He's not the kind of guy to go flying into the air to nab a high ball. But he will take care of the ball at the back o the scrum, he will clean up garbage at the back of the lineout, and he will drift back to cover kicks.

He's a savvy guy, and they will need a poised, savvy guy there.

In the backs, there wasn't much to worry about in the sense that Mike Petri, Adam Siddall, Andrew Suniula, and Seamus Kelly return as scrumhalf, flyhalf, inside center, and outside center. Of these, Seamus Kelly has the most to prove as he was below his own standard on defense and didn't seem to really get going offensively. Still it's a set group. The addition of Roland Suniula makes sense as the Eagles are short on backs thanks to an injury to Brett Thompson and the loss of Troy Hall, Blaine Scully and Chris Wyles. Out of the USA team for some years, Suniula brings experience and versatility. In addition, how great would it be to see Andrew, Shalom, and Rolan Suniula on the field at the same time? It's still a bit of a surprise pick, and while it was born a bit out of desperation, speaks to Tolkin's willingness to take a risk or two.

More risks to be taken, potentially, in the deep three. Without Troy Hall (who can't play because he un-retired and the US Anti-Doping Agency requires a six-month stand-down after you un-retire), he lost the guy he planned to have at fullback. His current wings aren't good options for fullback. Out of Tim Maupin, Tim Stanfill, and Taku Ngwenya (welcome back, by the way), he doesn't have a kicker. Adam Siddall could have been moved here, as he's done well at fullback before, but he's settled at flyhalf, so why fix what's not broken?

Shalom Suniula could have layer fullback, also. He can kick fairly well, is quick, and played as a sweeper for the USA 7s team. But that would upset the Qi of the squad, because if a change is needed at scrumhalf or flyhalf, Shalom Suniula is the guy to step in. Hard to plan for that when he's your starting fullback.

So that leaves the best experienced guy who can tackle and kick, and that's Folau Niua. He can kick, by the way, with both feet, which helps avoid charge-downs. Niua stepped in at wing against New Zealand when Thompson went down, and he did surprisingly well.

Ngwenya is an obvious choice at right wing - if he's there, use him. But he was not selected for over a year because he wasn't following the script. Stanfill is a surprise, in that Tolkin usually tempers a risky move (in his mind) such as playing Ngwenya and Niua, with a safe move, like the defensively reliable Tim Maupin. But instead, Tolkin has gone for the try-scoring Stanfill, who scored four tries in the Americas Rugby Championship. Stanfill can sniff out a dropped ball and does not need to be asked twice to go for the tryline.

Tolkin has followed his usual plan in that he likes to have a good kicking game and forward who will stand up in a fight. He appreciated the grafter, the chippy flanker, and he also needs someone there who will just stay frosty and limit mistakes. That's his pack.

But in the backs it's a different story. Normally when he is unsure, Tolkin goes for a safe player. Troy Hall is a safe player. Tim Maupin is a safe player. This isn't an insult - it means he's a player who will do war he's asked to do, and while he won't break off a long run or invent something crazy on the fly, he will not make any dumb mistakes and will be consistent. But he didn't make that choice in the backs.

Instead Tolkin decided that he needs a little crazy in this game, and needs someone who can perhaps conjure a try out of not-much. (This is the time in this column where we ask what happened to Paul Emerick, who essentially ended his career in leading the USA to a rout of Romania two years ago.) He decided to bring in Roland Suniula as his insurance policy - a player who has played for the Eagles once in the last two years. He has picked Tom Stanfill, a guy who has about five minutes of test match experience, at left wing. At fullback he has a player who is new to the position. And on the bench his forwards include several youngsters, unknowns, and a guy who was on the U20 team just a few months ago.

Mike Tolkin has broken away from his normal approach, in part because he has been forced to, but he also might be looking at these unpredictable players and hoping that through their unpredictability they could blow this game open.

USA Lineup v Romania
1. Nick Wallace
2. Phil Thiel
3. Olive Kilifi
4. Tai Tuisamoa
5. Louis Stanfill
6. Todd Clever (C)
7. John Quill
8. Matt Trouville
9. Mike Petri
10. Adam Siddall
11. Tim Stanfill
12. Andrew Suniula
13. Seamus Kelly
14. Taku Ngwenya
15. Folau Niua

Reserves
16. Tom Coolican
17. Benjamin Tarr
18. Mate Moeakiola
19. Greg Peterson
20. John Cullen
21. Kyle Sumsion
22. Shalom Suniula
23. Roland Suniula