Could this be the year that it all gets shaken up?

You wonder. Here in the Varsity Cup, the same four teams had been in the semifinals for the last three years. That's changed this year as Arkansas State upended Navy to get to the top four. Now, could the run of three-straight BYU v Cal finals be stopped?

It could be.

Arkansas State unleashed a powerful combination of hard-hitting forwards and an experienced and talented backline. The Red Wolves don't really get too worked up about any opponent - they've seen them all before and don't get thrown off by getting this far.

"Getting to the final is definitely our goal," said Coach Shaun Potgieter earlier this spring. "It's a doable goal, and I guess we would say we can make it, and would be disappointed if we don't make it that far."

Well, that's pretty clear. Arkansas State is targeting a win against BYU in BYU's back yard. But it will be a tall order. The Cougars have executed nicely - as befits a team that is experienced and knows what's required.

"Our team has continued to work hard carrying the momentum from the regular season to the playoffs this year," BYU Rugby Head Coach David Smyth told BYURugby.com. "We need to continue to stay disciplined all 80-minutes of the game and keep up our intensity. Arkansas State will play their best and will bring it on Saturday."

"Sticking to the game plan will be key in winning this weekend's game," added BYU No. 8 Joe Pikula. "I have full confidence in my team. Executing what the coaches have worked with us on in practice has paid off on the field."

BYU hammered Dartmouth 75-15 last week, and that sort of score isn't exactly rare. Ranked teams Arizona State (113-8), Utah (49-12), Army (71-10), St. Mary's (62-15), and Air Force (80-8) have all lost in similar fashion. St. Mary's and Central Washington have pushed them closer in other games, but that's about it.

ASU has been less busy, but the Red Wolves have recorded wins over ranked teams Middle Tennessee State, Arkansas, Davenport (twice), Clemson, and, last week, Navy. They did, however, lose to Life 32-15, and the score against Navy was 31-24, and perhaps that's just an indication of how strong Navy is. 

In the other semifinal, there's an event stronger possibility of history not repeating itself. Cal has taken care of just about everybody they've played, apart from UBC. The Bears have executed well and have some experienced heads at the halfback hinge. Cal's own preview posted on their website seem to emphasize the age and foreign pedigree of the CWU team, but Head Coach Jack Clark's words were about the challenge.

“Central Washington is a good team, as well they should be,” said Clark. “They are bigger and more experienced than any other team in the competition except BYU. We can’t wait.”

Certainly Central has two capped players in Aladdin Schirmer (7s and 15s), and Seth Halliman (7s). More importantly, CWU has augmented its independent schedule with some tough club opponents, and will be ready for the physical battle.

"I like the way we're playing rugby right now," said CWU Head Coach Tony Pacheco. "We are starting to play our best rugby and the guys are embracing the process. We circled this date a long time ago, and we're just really excited to play the game."

The 8-9-10 combo of Schirmer, Martin Van Der Wal, and Scott Dean is playing nicely, but in the end, it's about the battle up front.

"Physicality and size factors into everything we do," said Pacheco. "Cal is big and physical and skillful and talented. Are they bigger than us? If they are it's not by much."

Results of note for the two teams: Cal lost to UBC 20-15 and 50-3. CWU didn't play UBC, but did play UVic, and lost 27-22. (UBC and UVic play this weekend, but also met in January with UBC winning 37-30 ... so the teams are relatively similar in quality.) Cal beat UCLA 37-3 and Utah 46-19, while CWU beat those teams 44-15 and 58-5. That gives Central the advantage on points for-and-against, but not by much. CWU also has played BYU, losing 58-27 in a game that was much closer until the final ten minutes. 

Observers say CWU has a legitimate shot to beat Cal this weekend, even with the game being played at Cal's Witter Field. 

History says the Varsity Cup will come down to the same two teams, again. But this year there's more of a chance to shake things up than ever before. The games are certainly worth a look.

CWU at Cal 1pm Pacific Time kickoff

Arkansas State at BYU 1pm Mountain Time kickoff