The D1A playoffs are finally here and with them the inevitable discussion about the competitive balance.
Are these absolute best men’s college teams in the country? Almost certainly. One or two or perhaps even three teams around. the nation could mount an argument that they belong in this top 16, but those teams would be hard-pressed to come away with a win on the weekend.
Is the competitive balance getting better? It has plateaued. The last couple of years coaches have been talking about how any of the top eight could potentially win a championship. This year it seems a bit more top-heavy. With some graduations in some teams, and the loss of Central Washington, most observers think Cal and Navy are a step above.
Can there be upsets? Well, depend on what you mean by that. If you mean can a road team win in the Round of 16? Then yes, there are games where the home team better be super-careful.
Can a road team win in the Quarterfinals? Absolutely. In fact. of the four matchups we anticipate, three could potentially end up with the road team win. Those teams would still be underdogs, mind you, but they could indeed win.
Eastern Bracket
Mary Washington at Navy
One of the interesting things about Navy is that while two of their backs, Roanin Krieger and Drew Baublitz, are Scholz Award nominees, and several others are scoring tries, it is their forwards who drive the propeller. That engine room is hard-working and unflinching. Everything they do comes from what their forwards can do.
With Krieger’s goalkicking and Navy’’s ability to maul, if you run into penalty trouble, you are, indeed, in trouble.
Arkansas State at Army
Yes, this is one of those upset possibilities. This is a clash between two excellent forwards in George Engels (Army) and Aaron Van Dyk (ASU), both Scholz Nominees. And the physical battle is what likely will decide the winner here. Warrick Day has enjoyed an excellent career with the Red Wolves and his vision, communication, and intelligence will be needed here.
Army’s offensive power relies in part on scrumhalf Isaac Gamboa and his ability to ship that ball quickly.
Mount St. Mary’s at Life
The Mount is enjoying perhaps their best season with Scholz Nominee Hayden McKay part of a larger group of agressive forward players. They can counter well and bash it when they need to. But Life is very good this year and have only had the odd hiccup in their season.
At the center of all of it is Logan Ballinger, the Scholz Nominee loose forward who brings a calm intensity to the game as his thumps in tackle after tackle. Adam Chadwick and Leon Best back all of that up in the front row, while Jonty Lee’s playmaking and runners who find gaps make the Running Eagles a formidable opponent.
They will feel that they made a mistake in how they approached the end of their match with Lindenwood, and that result will likely mean they travel next week. That will likely be the case, but that’s better than not playing at all.
Penn State at Lindenwood
This Lindenwood plays fast and hits hard. And perhaps they don’t get enough credit for how they adjust their game for the conditions or the opponent. They like to enjoy their rugby and there’s nothing wrong with that, but they do get down to business. Jack McCallister is a Scholz Nominee and he keeps the game moving quickly.
Byron Forword has been a bit of a points machine, while that second row of Neil Mczarek and skipper David Scanlan is easy to over look until you have to play them.
