The Olympic Rugby 7s events will be held July 24-27 (Men) and July 28-30 (Women) and will be held at Stade de France in Saint Denis, the national rugby stadium.

The USA men are in a very tough pool C with Fiji, France, and Uruguay. They will have their work cut out for them. Of course, with just 12 teams in the competition, no pool is particularly easy. Keep an eye toward Pool B, which includes potential favorites Argentina and Australia, the always unpredictable Samoans, and the equally worrisome Kenya.

The USA women are in Pool C with France, Japan, and Brazil. This is completely and utterly a winnable pool for the Eagles, and even if they trip up, it would be against France, a team they have a good rivalry with. Despite recent hiccups, the USA women should expect to beat Japan and Brazil comfortably.

The Format

As is the case in the new format of World Rugby's SVNS series, three pools of four means that the top two from each pool plus the two best third-place teams will make the quarterfinals. The tiebreaker for the third-place teams (if they have the same record) is points difference. 

For the USA women, then, a path to a medal starts with beating Japan and Brazil, and, hopefully, beating France. The top eight teams will be reseeded 1 through 8 and we're going to attempt to predict how this might fall out:

While Australia has enjoyed an excellent season this year, they are in a somewhat tougher pool than New Zealand, so we think New Zealand will likely be 3-0 and have the best points difference.

So the seeding could look like this:

1. New Zealand
2. Australia
3. ***
4. Canada
5. ***
6. Ireland
7. Great Britain
8. Fiji

Yes, we're saying that Canada will beat Fiji and Ireland will beat Great Britain, but that second game could go either way.

Also capable of going either way is USA vs France. This is a very difficult game to predict because these teams normally play each other quite close. And, because the seeding is based in part on points difference, the losing team in that game will be highly motivated to play as close as possible, if only to avoid playing the other in the quarterfinals.

In the end, however, if the tournament falls this way, it's not bad for the USA—they can beat Canada and they can beat Ireland, especially if they don't get caught up in too much contact. We do not foresee the Eagles getting a #2 or #1 seed because their offense just isn't as potent, on average, as the other teams'.

So the pathway to a medal is, as it is always now, winning that quarterfinal. Remember last time when the USA had a big lead on great Britain only to lose it and fail to make the semis. Win a quarterfinal win, the USA would find themselves facing off with Australia or New Zealand. And we think France will get there, too. After that, it's a case of playing their very best game.

For the men, the situation is different. We don't think the USA is a in a good position to win a medal this year. Their results have not made us feel that a medal is in the offing. Hey, there's always a chance, but some things will have to change in their overall performance to make that happen.

Here's how we see the quarterfinal seeds shaking out:

1. Fiji
2. Argentina
3. New Zealand
4. Australia
5. France
6. South Africa
7. Ireland
8. USA

Yes, we do think the USA will make the quarterfinals. We figure they will go 1-2 but should hang relatively close to Fiji and France, and beat Uruguay. Meanwhile, the #3 team from Pool B will have a tough time keeping the losing margins close against Argentina and Australia both.

The USA actually has a shot against Fiji—they often match up well with them. But, it's going to be really tough.