NCR has not released its Men's D2 playoff bracket yet, but we can still use the last few days to speculate on some aspects of how the national playoff will shake down.
To be fair, NCR's task is difficult, because what they want is a semifinal quartet in Houston that represents the four best teams in the competition. But with some team shifts to D1 and some conference shifts as well you can't simply plug in the champions from the conferences that won last year. The rankings (NCR's, not GRR's) are taken into account certainly. So let's have a look who might be in the playoffs:
NEWCRC
Norwich dominated a very good New Hampshire side 83-5 to make the final and likely keep ahold of their #1 GRR ranking (although the #2 team, IUP, won by over 90 so ...). University of Vermont will join them in the final, having beaten Coast Guard 16-9. Now, conventional wisdom usually points to the team that has encountered tougher competition that you'd pick as the winner. Call it the RWC 1995 effect. However, in this case Norwich is favored. Their offense is excellent and they beat Coast Guard by 56, as well as UMass -Lowell (a team UVM tied) by 47. So at the moment it appears that Norwich has the inside track on the #1 seed and UVM is set for #2.
What that means is the #1 seed will likely get a relatively easier Round of 16 game, and the #2 seed a tougher one. Except ... last year that was possibly true but Norwich played Allegheny #1 IUP. Both teams were very good and you wonder if that matchup will be shifted around this time.
Regionality matters, too, as the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals are held on the same weekend in a relatively central location (such as Cherry Hill, NJ).
Will there be a #3 seed out of the NEWCRC? There was in 2021 and that team lost their opening round game to Marist (it was Vermont FYI). But NCR likes having more teams involved in playoffs, so we could still see three from the NEWCRC.
Men D2 College Rankings for Fall 2022 Week 8
Great Midwest
It's a bit of a tossup on who will win, but it will be Northern Iowa vs Marquette after both won semifinals.
Marquette's defense was very strong (they won 36-0) and Pat Cooney credited the forwards for making that happen. For Northern Iowa, it was the attack, as they scored 62 points. Flyhalf Jentry Staack said most of UNI's tries came from big breaks and credited his talented backline for making tacklers miss. He also pointed to the defensive effort as they held Wisconsin-Whitewater to only 10 points.
"We played a great defensive game against the larger bodies that Whitewater brings to the table," added Staack.
This is a tossup, and we will again expect the #3 team in the GMW to be in the playoffs, and that will be either Whitewater or Loyola.
Gateway
Principia just blew through the playoffs with a 62-13 victory over Southern Nazarene (!) and 80-5 over Central Missouri.
Is that enough from UCM to get another seed for the conference? A 75-point loss in the final is pretty emphatic, but we suspect they get a shot.
MARC
One of the most unpredictable conferences when it comes to their own playoffs, the MARC has kind of gone to form this time around. Villanova beat a tough Bucknell team, a team that upended 'Nova in 2021.
Villanova was led by player of the match and flyhalf Logan Noss, who kept the Wildcats' up-tempo attack going. Scrumhalf Joel Casingal made critical attacking decisions as well as putting Bucknell under pressure with strategic kicks.
No. 8 Matt Raine, hooker Matt Sinnott, and lock Alex Telma all made key carries and tested the Bucknell interior defense. Good defensive organization and an up-tempo attack were the key.
Georgetown slammed Bloomsburg. These two will face off for the conference title, but expect the #2 to be in the playoffs, too.
