List of Playoff Teams in Men's D2 College Becoming Clearer
List of Playoff Teams in Men's D2 College Becoming Clearer
NCR has not released its Men's D2 playoff bracket yet, but we can still use the last few days to speculate on some aspects of how the national playoff will shake down.
To be fair, NCR's task is difficult, because what they want is a semifinal quartet in Houston that represents the four best teams in the competition. But with some team shifts to D1 and some conference shifts as well you can't simply plug in the champions from the conferences that won last year. The rankings (NCR's, not GRR's) are taken into account certainly. So let's have a look who might be in the playoffs:
NEWCRC
Norwich dominated a very good New Hampshire side 83-5 to make the final and likely keep ahold of their #1 GRR ranking (although the #2 team, IUP, won by over 90 so ...). University of Vermont will join them in the final, having beaten Coast Guard 16-9. Now, conventional wisdom usually points to the team that has encountered tougher competition that you'd pick as the winner. Call it the RWC 1995 effect. However, in this case Norwich is favored. Their offense is excellent and they beat Coast Guard by 56, as well as UMass -Lowell (a team UVM tied) by 47. So at the moment it appears that Norwich has the inside track on the #1 seed and UVM is set for #2.
What that means is the #1 seed will likely get a relatively easier Round of 16 game, and the #2 seed a tougher one. Except ... last year that was possibly true but Norwich played Allegheny #1 IUP. Both teams were very good and you wonder if that matchup will be shifted around this time.
Regionality matters, too, as the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals are held on the same weekend in a relatively central location (such as Cherry Hill, NJ).
Will there be a #3 seed out of the NEWCRC? There was in 2021 and that team lost their opening round game to Marist (it was Vermont FYI). But NCR likes having more teams involved in playoffs, so we could still see three from the NEWCRC.
Men D2 College Rankings for Fall 2022 Week 8
Great Midwest
It's a bit of a tossup on who will win, but it will be Northern Iowa vs Marquette after both won semifinals.
Marquette's defense was very strong (they won 36-0) and Pat Cooney credited the forwards for making that happen. For Northern Iowa, it was the attack, as they scored 62 points. Flyhalf Jentry Staack said most of UNI's tries came from big breaks and credited his talented backline for making tacklers miss. He also pointed to the defensive effort as they held Wisconsin-Whitewater to only 10 points.
"We played a great defensive game against the larger bodies that Whitewater brings to the table," added Staack.
This is a tossup, and we will again expect the #3 team in the GMW to be in the playoffs, and that will be either Whitewater or Loyola.
Gateway
Principia just blew through the playoffs with a 62-13 victory over Southern Nazarene (!) and 80-5 over Central Missouri.
Is that enough from UCM to get another seed for the conference? A 75-point loss in the final is pretty emphatic, but we suspect they get a shot.
MARC
One of the most unpredictable conferences when it comes to their own playoffs, the MARC has kind of gone to form this time around. Villanova beat a tough Bucknell team, a team that upended 'Nova in 2021.
Villanova was led by player of the match and flyhalf Logan Noss, who kept the Wildcats' up-tempo attack going. Scrumhalf Joel Casingal made critical attacking decisions as well as putting Bucknell under pressure with strategic kicks.
No. 8 Matt Raine, hooker Matt Sinnott, and lock Alex Telma all made key carries and tested the Bucknell interior defense. Good defensive organization and an up-tempo attack were the key.
Georgetown slammed Bloomsburg. These two will face off for the conference title, but expect the #2 to be in the playoffs, too.
Allegheny, Mid-East, Tri-State, Cardinals
IUP is clearly the #1 team out of the Allegheny, while Miami won big once again and should be the top team out of the Mid-East.
Marist has been the top team in the Tri-State, and while the quality of the Red Foxes' play and their winning a playoff game last year isn't enough to add a seed from their conference—they don't have enough teams—it should be enough to put them straight into the Round of 16.
Virginia leads the Cardinals and they will be the lone representative from that conference in the playoffs.
Deep South
Southeastern Louisiana beat Tulane 46-5 to win their conference, and likely the only seed to the national playoff.
Tulane had beaten Spring Hill the week before to get into this game. Despite the heavy rain Southeastern Louisiana put together some good continuity, scoring tries after sequences of 13, eight, and 11 phases, respectively.
Felix Hamilton-Marino's kicking from hand pinned Tulane back and they had trouble getting into scoring position.
So this is a new playoff opportunity for NCR with the Deep South.
Southern Conference
The regular season is still underway here and it looks like NC State and UNC-Charlotte are going to be the top two. Charlotte has a game with Appalachian State this coming weekend and they are favored to win that. If such a victory happens then Charlotte and NC State will both be 4-0 going into November 12's meeting between the two. Pretty awesome that the schedule was planned that way ... except of course it wasn't. The 49-ers and the Wolfpack were supposed to play October 1 but Hurricane Ian kiboshed that.
Still those two teams will be in the playoffs.
Great Lakes
Might we see the #2 team out of here? We did last year but the conference has changed since then. Grand Valley State is undefeated and their win over Ferris State we're pretty sure clinched that spot even if they somehow lose to Central Michigan. Ferris State should be 2nd but if CMU does beat GVUS they might be bumped out.
Despite the small size of the Great Lakes (strong top three, numbers-challenged other four) there is an argument for a #3 team to get a play-in game. This is partly due to how close the games have been between the top three: GVSU 34-19 over Ferris State, Ferris State 34-33 over CMU. Central Michigan vs GVSU promises to be close too.
Northern Lights
The final between MSU-Mankato and North Dakota State produced a championship for Mankato 21-14. This remains a bit of a question-mark conference when it comes to how competitive they are on a national level. The answer to this used to be "of course they are!" but the last three years have been tough on the region. This could be a breakout late fall for the Mavericks.
But one wonders if this conference might have to play a first-round game.
New Conferences
Auburn won comfortably over Mississippi State to stay undefeated and should end the conference as such. The big question is whether Memphis did enough to get the conference another seed. Probably not ... SCRC joins NCR after playing independently in D2 last season. so this is a new conference in the playoff equation.
Same goes for the High Peaks in which Montana State has been almost untouchable. In this conference the geography comes into play. While USA Rugby's playoff years ago did have a Rocky Mountain team play-in against a team from the Gateway, that seems a bit much considering how far one team would have to travel. Either they go into the Round of 16-Quarterfinal weekend or they don't.
So What Does That Give Us?
NEWCRC #1 (Norwich or Vermont)
Allegheny #1 (IUP)
Gateway #1 (Principia)
Great Midwest #1 (Northern Iowa or Marquette)
Deep South #1 (Southeastern Louisiana)
Northern Lights #1 (MSU Mankato)
SCRC #1 (Auburn)
Great Lakes #1 (Grand Valley State)
Southern #1 (UNC-Charlotte or NC State)
MARC #1 (Georgetown or Villanova)
Cardinals #1 (Virginia)
Tri-State #1 (Marist)
Mid-East #1 (Miami University)
Rocky Mountain #1 (Montana State)
That's 14 teams, which means we need at least two play-in games. But there will probably be more:
Great Midwest #2 (UNI or Marquette) and #3 (Whitewater or Loyola)
NEWCRC #2 (Norwich or Vermont) and maybe #3 (Coast Guard or New Hampshire)
Gateway #2 (Central Missouri)
Southern #2 (UNC-Charlotte or NC State)
MARC #2 (Georgetown or Villanova)
Great Lakes #2 (Ferris State)
If we did that, we've have eight more teams, which would mean four of conference champions would have to play in a play-in (eight additional seeds plus four #1s makes 12; six winners move on to play the remaining 10 #1s).
That seems a bit much, so maybe the #3s don't jump in and we have four play-in games involving just two #1s.
Whatever we learn, this is hopefully a useful look into who is in the hunt.
