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NCR D1 Quarterfinals: Previews and Picks

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NCR D1 Quarterfinals: Previews and Picks

Brown vs AIC earlier this fall. Photo @CoolRugbyPhotos.

We're finally at the NCR D1 quarterfinals this weekend and boy do we have some matchups.

Here's a look at the games, and what we think about what.

Brown vs Walsh

Upset Special! Starting in Week 4 Brown was ranked #1 by GRR among NCR D1 teams, and after that week it was Brown and Queens #1 and #2, or #2 and #1. GRR's hesitation at making Brown #1 without changing it was the level of competition. Is the Liberty not as strong as the Rugby East, or was Brown just that dominant—8-0 with an average score of 67-9. Ultimately it's probably the case that both are true. Few argue that Rugby East is, top to bottom, a tough conference than the Liberty. That's no disrespect to Liberty, it's just the way it is. However, Liberty teams are still very good, and to hold those teams to 9.0 points per game is impressive. 

Brown's forward pack has become very effective and they know when to take points and when to be smart with the ball. Walsh, for their part, is largely the lineup that won NCR D1 as Notre Dame College. This year they have faltered, especially on the road. The Cavaliers have had trouble converting pressure into points and there's some debate as to whether that's impatience, teamwork, decision-making, or just some bad luck. Ultimately, they seem to have figured out some of that, scoring 41 at home against Penn State and then scoring 39 on the road against Indiana.

So, given that coming out of the Rugby East prepares you for difficult games in the postseason, this could be an upset. Ultimately we have to say Brown is favored. They have been executing well, their kicking game is outstanding, and they defend well. It's Head Coach David LaFlamme's insistence on defensive prowess that should see Brown through.

Thomas More vs St. Bonaventure

Thomas More's run to a Big Rivers title is something astonishing. They entered the Big Rivers semifinals with essentially no subs, and won that game. They moved players around, but took on a backs-against-the-wall mentality and it worked. It worked so well that they beat Wheeling in the final 44-41. Somehow they matched Wheeling blow-for-blow. Now, with players back from injury and suspension (post- Rio Grande incident), they have some depth.

TMU wins set piece, they embrace the physical side of the game, they can kick, and they understand that overall pace can be beaten by changes of speed.

The story of St. Bonaventure is similar to that of Walsh in that they play, week-in, week-out, a very challenging schedule. But the other side of it is that SBU is not that unlike Thomas More. Bonnies, too, can play strong defense, win the kicking game, and succeed in tight. St. Bonaventure's opening game of their season, a 41-23 loss to Navy, was the widest-margin game of the season. The next game was a 14-point win and then the next five games were eight points or fewer. Just about every game they have played has been on a knife edge. And the result in the play-ins was a 41-17 defeat of Dartmouth.

Head Coach Danny Neighbour said they have finally found their offensive voice. We could see another big-scoring game. This is a tossup.  

 

Notre Dame vs Wheeling

Wheeling has to be shaking their head at losing the Big Rivers final to Thomas More. They came out of the semis feeling pretty good and had unleashed an attack that is very tough to stop.

Notre Dame has to be shaking their head after not winning the Big 10, and there they found their attack stymied a bit. 

So this is a quarterfinal about unfinished business. Right now we're leaning Wheeling, but if Notre Dame can be excellent on defense and take points when they are on offer, they can certainly take this.

Queens vs AIC

Tenacity has been the watchword for AIC and as a result they won a series of close games early in the fall that put them in excellent position to be here in the playoffs. Their attack execution has improved but the key is they have to watch their discipline. Queens, meanwhile, has dedicated itself to playing superb defense, something they have generally done well in. But, lately, they got smacked around a bit. Head Coach Frank McKinney warned his team about looking past opponents, and then saw his side lose to Penn State only to then beat Life a week later. 

All factors considered, it's tough to imagine that Queens will be beaten in this quarterfinal. And if Queens wins it, they will win it up front.