Can the USA beat Japan?

That’s the big question, to be answered tonight at Bonney Field in Sacramento.

Beating Japan used to be something the Eagles did on a regular basis. The first 11 games between the two countries ended with nine USA victories, one tie, and won win for the Brave Blossoms. After that things were a little more even, with Japan winning twice and the USA three times, including a 69-27 rout in 2003.

But since then, it’s been all Japan. Five games in a row, all Japanese victories. The turnaround can be traced to a few factors - the growth of the Japan Top League professional competition, the influx of Polynesian and New Zealand players who have bolstered the Japanese pack, and the growth and development of home-grown forwards, especially in the front row, to make Japan a very good scrummaging team.

The scrum seems to fit nicely with the Japanese approach to sports, and the types of athletes they produce. And there’s the big difference, in my opinion, between the two teams - the scrum.

The USA scrum has its good moments, but against Japan they have had all sorts of problems at key times. Their 2013 game against the Blossoms was very even, but a disturbing period in the corner of the USA’s 22 where a series of scrums, penalties, and yellow cards led to a penalty try turned the game fully in Japan’s favor.

Out in the backline, the Eagles have shown they can be effective, with the backs scoring five tries in the countries’ last two meetings (and forwards contributing two more). Japan has a habit of somehow ghosting into gaps against bigger, supposedly scarier backline defenses. They did that a little against the USA, but really the four Japan tries last year were from a maul, broken play that started with a maul, and two scrum eight-man shoves. So it seems plain - that the USA is better in open play, and in phase play. The USA is still more formidable in the contact area in terms of laying in teeth-rattling tackles. But Japan’s body position and technique in the tight play is superb.

Easily solved, right? Don’t give up penalties that can lead to lineouts (and mauls) close to the USA line, and don’t drop the ball.

This current USA team is probably better in the scrum than last year’s. If the back row stays bond and shoves, with Fry and Lamositele up front, they have a good shot at keep Japan’s drive at bay.

Everything else can fall into place if the scrum holds up and holds strong. The USA maul defense is good. The Eagles seem a little more settled at flyhalf. The outside backs are impressive and the back row has been on fire. Scrum well and all those other things come in to play.

Notes: Japan has made several changes to the team that beat Canada, switching out two front-rowers (with last week’s starters going to the bench), and making changes at scrumhalf, No. 8, wing, center, and fullback. That last is a big one, with Saturday’s captain, Ayumu Goromaru, also their goalkicker, taking a seat. How the new goalkicker does could be a factor.