How USA and Samoa Match Up
How USA and Samoa Match Up
USA vs Samoa Saturday is potentially a study in contrasts.
The USA will be looking to leverage an expected superiority in set piece and strong defense against a Samoan team that is elusive and adventurous.
USA vs Samoa KO 3AM Saturday, Sept. 21 on Peacock
We’ve been looking at the stats:
In the Pacific Nations Cup, USA ranks 6th out of 6 in the following per-game averages: points, trie, goakicking percentage, carries, meters gained, entries into the opposing 22, line breaks, defenders beaten, offloads, and passes.
Samoa ranks third or fourth in all of those except entries into the opposing 22 (2nd), and defenders beaten (1st).
USA Head Coach Scott Lawrence cautioned against getting too caught up in stats and that’s fair.
"You have to be careful about past stats [because] there’s a lot of things that can change in the course of a week," he sid.
Much of the USA’s ranking is because of their last game, against Fiji, where they spent a lot of time defending. But it also shows that the USA game has been fairly straightforward, not super-risky, and dependent on ball security.
Samoa, which has a better ruck success than the USA (but not by a lot) hits hard, sidesteps tacklers, doesn’t kick a whole lot, and thinks attack first.
Interestingly, it's worth noting also that the USA is 2nd overall in breaking the gainline on carries. That indicates that they run hard, but maybe those offloads aren't connecting to make a successful initial run become something bigger. If they can do that a bit more, they can inflict more damage. USA captain Greg Peterson touched on this.
“It probably just comes down to decision-making at times. We probably get stuck in thinking about it too much rather than playing naturally. At test level it comes down to the one, two percenters. We worked really hard this week on those points specifically."
The big difference between these two teams might be set piece. Samoa has won 67.6% of their lineouts and 73.3% of their scrums. USA’s numbers are 86% and 92%. That right there might be where the Eagles can win this game.
"It's executing consistently on our own ball," added Lawrence. "Every team has some tells in what they do at set piece time and it’s just making sure we’re switched on when those pictures present themselves.
Defensively, the Eagles have performed well. They held Fiji to three tries and really it was two because one was on a clear forward pass that none of the four game officials saw fit to notice.
With Samoa winning their rucks at a high percentage, there's always a question about whether you tackle-and-tackle-and-tackle or whether you go for the jackle in the ruck. Lawrence hinted at the plan here:
"I know we back our defensive system," he said. "The key thing is there not to get bored with a team that holds onto the ball. Leep your discipline, don’t get bored with it, and keep getting up off the line."
That might just be it.
