One of the great college rugby rivalry games kicks off Saturday as the US Naval Academy hosts West Point in Annapolis.

This is a clash that has often defied predictions - seemingly struggling teams can often come out and win a supposedly superior opponent. That’s because this game means more to everyone - the players, the coaches, the fans - than any other. 

There is also the matter of the Commander-in-Chief Cup. The three major military academies, Navy, Army, and Air Force, now play each other every season for a trophy and service academy bragging rights. This hasn’t always been the case - with Air Force way out there in Colorado, the three teams didn’t always find a way to meet. But with Army Rugby now varsity, Navy Rugby enjoying strength and support, and Air Force’s status on campus improved and strengthening, it’s an annual thing.

So far this season Navy defeated Air Force 28-0 in October, and Air Force then exacted revenge against Army 31-25 in November. This Army-Navy game, then decides who wins the cup.

Coming into the game, Army is back from a trip west where they were defeated soundly by BYU in a game where they showed some good periods of play, but were constantly disrupted and punished by a skilled and opportunistic BYU team. The Black Knights followed that up with a comeback win over Utah in which they finally started to put it all together.

Junior wing Luke Heun has scored four tries in Army’s three games in 2016 (including their 56-5 win over Dartmouth on March 5), while Peter Basnight has three tries. Jacob Banarhall at scrumhalf remains their leader and the sparkplug for the squad.

Meanwhile, Navy went on a trip, too, traveling to the United Kingdom where they played, and beat, their counterparts at the British Royal Navy College. That score was 20-15, and they followed it up with wins over Penygraig 31-12, Cylvinidd 31-15. Jacob Rowell was man of the match in the first Welsh game, and No. 8 Nick Marmureanu scored two tries, one from 80 meters, in the second and was named man of the match.

“The BRNC rolled out the red carpet,” said Navy Head Coach Mike Flanagan. “We visited their school, saw class, got a feel for their training routine, and most of all found great common ground about service, life and rugby.”

Navy produced a string of impressive results this season, winning 11, losing one, and tying one. That tie was to the Norfolk men’s cub, and the loss was to Life University in one of the closest games Life has had. Meanwhile they have beaten Dartmouth twice, Clemson, both Notre Dames, and, most recently, Penn State.

Navy was won five in a row since tying Norfolk. Including (pictured) Penn State. Colleen McCloskey photo.

Army, though, is a different animal.

“We circled this date in October,” said Flanagan. “This is why we play. Our guys are excited to test themselves against Army. We know they're ready but so are we. The tour was a great lead in to both Army and the Varsity Cup, but of of course Army takes precedence as always. The Service Academy hits are always our toughest, the emotion as well as the physicality make them stand alone.”

"Army-Navy means everything to our team, players and program," added Army Head Coach Matt Sherman. "All year we’ve been working toward peaking March 26th and we’re confident that we’re heading in a direction to achieve that mission.  We also know a formidable opponent awaits, and we’re excited to face that challenge, and put in our best performance of the season."  

By our calculations, Navy can secure the Commander-in-Chief Cup with a win or a tie, or if the Midshipmen lose to Army by less than 17 points. If Army wins by 17, then the Black Knights are tied with Navy at 1-1, with a points difference of +11. Then, as we understand it, the tiebreaker would be head-to-head, which Army wins. Any larger victory for Army and Army wins on points difference.

(We’re making some educated assumptions here, but the cup could be using some other Byzantine tiebreaker system.)

Air Force, by virtue of having a worse points difference than both Army and Navy, cannot win the cup.