Rarely does the USA Men’s National 15s team go into a game where we expect them to win.

Even more rare is when we expect them to win when had the expected starters aren’t there. And even, even more rare to have that feeling when pretty much the entire team is either a new cap, or has one or two caps to his name. 

And yet, that’s the situation we’re in. Why? Because those new-ish caps have been playing pretty well. Despite all the changes back and forth, half the starting pack has been playing together, and the halfbacks are also quite familiar with each other’s work.

Yes, the ideal of this six-nation Americas Rugby Championship is actually making things happen - players are getting game time and learning, and they are getting experience with their teammates - the sort of stuff Eagle coaches have been asking for.

So now David Tameilau, who in another time would ave had to wait six months to get 20 minutes, now will have over 300 minutes of international rugby on his resume by the Ides of March. Same goes for Joe Taufete’e, Ben Landry, Brodie Orth, Niku Kruger, and Jake Anderson.

But the experience is more of a look-ahead thing. Why the Eagles should win Saturday is something else. 

Here’s why:

Brazil isn’t all that good. They’re not bad. They can move the ball and their kicking skills are solid, and they’ve managed to hang with the big boys. But they don’t have all the pieces.

The USA tight five should crush the Brazilians. That’s been a strength of the Eagles’ play, with the maul and a decent scrum, and some thundering clearouts in the rucks. That’s what will turn what could be a close score at halftime into a comfortable win.

Lineouts. Boy the USA should dominate the lineouts. Orth has been a dependable go-to guy, and newbie James King is 6-6 and could well be Taufete’e’s first target. At hooker, Taufete’e is a strong, accurate thrower, and the timing is on.

Despite a lot of shifting in the backline, in the end the Eagles should not have too many issues. Kruger is a very good passer at scrumhalf. Bird sits back in the pocket a bit and is the kind of guy to kick to the corner, but if your lineout can steal ball, maybe that’s the way to go. Adding Andrew Suniula in at #12 is a really nice move, because he’s been there before, and should relish the chance to bulldoze a few Brazilian tacklers. We’ll see how the outside backs do - they all have their talents, but the cohesion will be a question there, but Jake Anderson has been terrific at fullback, especially punting the ball. They should be fine.

On the bench, you’ve got your  settle-it-down types, like Eric Fry and Chad London (now a veteran with all of 3 caps to his name). You’ve also got your impact players. Watch for Hanco Germishuys to get on and do something memorable.

Now some things to be concerned about: Brazil may be 0-3, but they have scored more than 20 points against every opponent, and almost beat both Chile and Uruguay. In fact, they led Uruguay 74 minutes into the game. They can run. They aren’t superbly organized in defense, but they don’t back down.

They can maul, and in fact scored a try against Uruguay thanks to a maul. Their scrum is not horrible. Their kicking skills are excellent, and they have scored thanks to some precise and intelligent kicking.

David Harvey, the Brazil flyhalf, is an excellent goalkicker and kicked five penalties against Uruguay.

They will punish turnovers - they are quick, and have good ball skills.

If I were to give the USA team advice, it would be to avoid pitching the ball around and trying to win by 50. Instead I would want to see them play a punishing, methodical game using the forwards to soften up the defense, using Suniula and Mike Garrity to do it even more, and ramming the ball down Brazil’s throat.

I’d do this because going forward the Eagles will succeed with structure. In addition, Brazil’s best moments will come when structure breaks down. And against Uruguay next week, where the ARC is on the line, the Eagles will need every bit of that forward power and cohesion to win.

Penalties will be a worry, so the USA might want to steamroll in the scrum, but perhaps might show some discretion and just hold firm. In the rucks, too, they have to find their moments to poach the ball. 

The backs will get their runs, and the tries will come, but there’s a good chance they won’t come for a while. If the USA team can avoid youthful impatience, and instead use their physical superiority and their expected lineout superiority, they should be just fine.

The USA kicks off against Brazil on ESPN3 at 6pmET, 3pmPT.