How NIRA's D-I Semifinal Matchups Hinged on 8 Super-Close Games
How NIRA's D-I Semifinal Matchups Hinged on 8 Super-Close Games
The big question about NIRA, at least for us at GRR World Headquarters, is whether there could have been a different setup of semifinalists.
Yes, Dartmouth was always going to be #1. And yes, Harvard was pretty ensconced at 2nd.
So the question was, could Sacred Heart or Quinnipiac or even Queens have broke into that top four.
Sacred Heart did what they needed to do by beating Quinnipiac in their final regular-season game. Alyssa Cunningham scored two tries and created more, adding seven points with the boot for 17 on the day. Reece Woods scored two and Caitlyn Caldon scored a try and kicked three conversions.
The win put Sacred Heart at 4-3. But they ended up .030 Power Rankings points behind Brown, who lost 60-19 to Dartmouth. It is possible that if Brown had been shut out and Sacred Heart had held Quinnipiac to only a try or two they would have been closer. The Pioneers probably would not have bridged that gap.
Had Quinnipiac beaten Sacred Heart they likely would not have caught up with Brown, either.
In the end it came down to three specific games. Had Quinnipiac been able to win at least one of their opening matches—ties with Brown and with Harvard—they might well have ranked higher. For Sacred Heart, their home loss to Army 26-20 was the big one. Sacred Heart wins that, they're probably in the semifinals. Army won it, and they needed to in order to make that final four.
So it's going to be Brown at Dartmouth and Army at Harvard in the semis on November 16. In D-II AIC hosts Frostburg and Davenport hosts New Haven.
A week after that, we'll have the finals for D-I, D-II, and D-III.
But the questions we had about the D-I semifinalists are a testament to how competitive this conference is. Dartmouth has been powerful and hard to catch, for sure, and we've seen blowouts as well.
But in 34 conference games in NIRA D-I, 10 were within a try, which is a really good percentage (just under 30%). That's where this all hinged because nine of those 10 games involved at least one of the top six teams, and eight of those games involved two of them.
Think of how it all hinged on those games:
Army 33 Brown 40
Harvard 19 Dartmouth 26
Brown 12 Harvard 18
SHU 20 Army 26
SHU 20 Harvard 25
Quinnipiac 10 Army 14
Brown 17 Quinnipiac 17
Harvard 20 Quinnipiac 20
Change one of those games (except maybe Harvard vs Dartmouth) and you probably have a different semfiinal group