Who Makes the NCR D1 Playoffs?
Who Makes the NCR D1 Playoffs?
NCR's D1 playoff picture ...
Ten teams will be in the playoff, with four teams participating in play-in games on November 11, and six teams going directly to the quarterfinals on November 18.
2022 NCR D1 Quarterfinals
Thomas More 70-21 Fairfield
St. Bonaventure 29-24 Indiana
Brown 27-7 Wheeling
Queens 33-14 AIC
2022 NCR D1 Semifinals
Brown 14-9 St. Bonaventure
Queens 37-19 Thomas More
2022 NCR D1 Final
Brown 21-5 Queens
Last year the play-ins carried some controversy as Siena was bumped up from D1AA to the D1 playoffs, and were put into a play-in (which they lost) against Fairfield. As a result an expected playoff position for Notre Dame College didn't come to fruition and NDC was none too happy about that.
This year things have settled down a bit. With NCR finalizing their standards for being in D1 as opposed to D1AA, it's unlikely we'll see any middle-of-the-season switches.
So in 2023 the playoff teams will be:
Big 10 Top Finisher
Big Rivers Champion
Liberty Champion and Runner-Up
Rugby East Top Finisher and Runner-Up
In addition, the Big Rivers Runner-Up and Liberty #3, plus two at-large teams, will be in the play-in round.
Teams Positioned for a Playoff Run
Remember that the Big 10 and Rugby East are mixed leagues, with some teams in NCR D1 and some in D1A. As a result that is why we say "Top Finisher" as opposed to Champion. It's quite possible that a team that doesn't finish 1st in that conference will be the playoff representative for NCR D1. (D1A's playoffs is based more on the rankings.) The same goes for the Runner-Up, which could be a team that finishes 4th in a conference, for example, because the other teams in the top four are D1A.
Having said that, right now the team favored to win the Big 10 is Indiana, and Indiana is playing in the NCR D1 playoffs. Fun fact, though. Even if Indiana has a rough Big 10 semifinal / finals day, they have already clinched that top Big 10 team spot. The four semifinalists in the Big 10 are Indiana (NCR D1), Ohio State (D1A), most probably Michigan State (D1A), and the winner of this weekend's game between Illinois and Wisconsin (both D1A). So whether Indiana finishes 1st or 4th, they are the top NCR D1 team in the Big 10.
Michigan could potentially change this up if they beat Michigan State but MSU is favored when the two teams play this weekend.
The Big 10 Runner-Up could be Michigan or Purdue or Notre Dame.
Rugby East has three teams that are challenging for the position of top NCR D1 team in the conference: St. Bonaventure, Notre Dame College, and Queens. NDC plays Bonnies November 4 and that game might be the decider on that as both teams are playing well. Queens has a tough schedule with Queens, Mount St. Mary's, and Mary Washington on the docket. A good showing in those games will put their hand up for a play-in game, but it will likely be tough to overtake Notre Dame College for 2nd NCR team in the conference.
Big Rivers is down to the semifinals with Principia, Wheeling, Marian, and Thomas More remaining. On October 28 we find out who makes the final, which also confirms who makes the D1 playoffs.
Liberty has semifinals and final October 28 and November 4. Siena just beat Iona Wednesday night in a makeup game of the fixture that fell victim to lightning. So Siena and Brown are now unbeaten with winnable games remaining (Siena plays Fordham and Brown plays Dartmouth). Those two teams are going to be in the semis, but the chase is on for the other two spots. Fordham is still in the hunt thanks to a lot of bonus points. But it's more likely we'll see AIC, Dartmouth, or Iona in that top four. Remember three of the semifinalists will at least be in a play-in.
Anyone else? NCR didn't mention the Southern Conference, which has a D1AA division but Belmont Abbey, a school-supported team. But Belmont Abbey (which GRR has ranked #9 among the NCR D1 teams) is definitely a candidate for an at-large spot. Having beaten Southern Virginia, Lander, North Carolina, and UNC Wilmington they've produced some good results. But they have also lost to Mount St. Mary's, Mary Washington, and, tellingly, Queens.
The other team to think about is Southern Nazarene. SNU is ranked #12 by GRR among NCR D1 teams and has done quite well this season. Their problem is that, as an independent program in Oklahoma, they have only played one NCR team (a 46-3 win over Drury). They have played USA Rugby-member DIAA teams (wins over Iowa State, North Texas, TCU), and CRAA D1A teams (17-16 over Oklahoma and a 35-5 loss to Lindenwood). Oklahoma and Kansas are on the slate for SNU, but perhaps the big complication is that they scheduled a home game against Sam Houston State on November 11, the weekend of the play-ins. It's homecoming weekend at SNU and they needed to guarantee a game. So unless NCR makes a big adjustment, they might be on the outside looking in.
How We See It
So the likely playoff scenarios look like this:
Quarterfinalists:
Big 10 Top Finisher: Indiana
Big Rivers Champion: Principia (but could be any one of four teams)
Liberty Champion: Siena or Brown
Liberty Runner-Up: Siena or Brown
Rugby East Top Finisher: St. Bonaventure (but could be Notre Dame College)
Rugby East Runner-Up: Notre Dame College (but could be St. Bonaventure or Queens)
Could NCR accommodate Southern Nazarene's homecoming weekend by finding them a place in the quarterfinals? Tough to see how.
Play-In Teams:
Big Rivers Runner-Up: One of four teams, not sure who.
Liberty #3: Iona? Dartmouth? AIC?
At-Large: Belmont Abbey.
At-Large: Queens, maybe NDC, or Southern Nazarene.
