It was back in September (or close to it) that I said on a RuggaMatrix America podcast that the USA Men’s 7s team would not qualify for the Olympics.

I said that with the caveat that my assessment was based on recent form. As they are playing now, I said back then, the USA would lose to Canada in the NACRA 7s, and would lose to Samoa in the repechage tournament. But now, nine months later, Mike Friday and his coaching staff have a USA men’s 7s team is going into Cary, NC with a boatload of confidence that is definitely deserved. They are doing almost everything right. They have become one of the best-conditioned teams in the world game. They have embraced some tactical choices which is at once simple and also maddeningly difficult to get right.

Click on schedule to enlarge.

They defend. They win restarts. They make offloads knowing players are in support. The support players catch those passes, and keep running.

What other team on the World Rugby circuit can bash you like they can, and run around you like they can? At their best, the Eagles are a team that can win tournaments … which, of course, is exactly what they did in May in London.

But to qualify for the 2016 Olympics, the USA will have to forget about London and just beat Canada, and that hasn’t always been the easiest thing. In fact, Canada has made a habit of wining close games against the Eagles, and usually it’s because the Canadians have come in as if they had nothing to lose, and the Americans have played too tight, too nervous. In the Canadian victories over the past six years or so, I’d bet half the tries came directly from USA mistakes. Canada kills you on mistakes.

This could happen in Cary. All the clinical and merciless play from the Eagles could be undone if they start to try to change things, or lose control of the ball, or get down on themselves because of early errors.

Canada has added Tyler Ardron to their squad, and his job is to counter the power and physicality of Garrett Bender and Danny Barrett. Ardron is a big, powerful, rangy player, but as far as playing within the system goes, Bender and Barrett have to have the edge. 

Also added to the Canadian lineup is Ciaran Hearn. This Eagle-killer just pounces on loose balls and is so very hard to bring down. He is an extra boost of confidence for a team that needs it.

And then there’s Phil Mack. The scrappy and ageless scrumhalf, Mack is all kinds of problems for opponents. He sees the field well, and he is very quick on the quick tap. More importantly, his players trust him, and vice-versa. So when Mack goes on a run, he’s usually got two big support runners right behind him.

Add to that the try-scoring acumen of Sean Duke, the power game of Mike Fuailefau, and the experience and talent of Conor Trainor, Nathan Hirayama, John Moonlight, and Connor Braid, and you’ve got a team that, when playing well together, can do a lot of damage.

The difference? The difference is that the USA is better than the team has ever been and better positioned to handle the Canadian attack. The USA won the London 7s with Zack Test on the bench. The Eagles have Perry Baker and Carlin Isles, who are flat-out faster than anyone Canada can put on the field. They have Maka Unufe and Zack Test, and have added Chris Wyles and Brett Thompson, countering Canada’s own influx of Europe-based pros.

And at the center of it all, they’ve got Madison Hughes and Fulau Niua, who have done a brilliant job creating scoring opportunities, playing defense, and keeping the scoreboard moving.

In September, this USA team wasn’t good enough to win the NACRA 7s. In June, the Eagles are plenty good enough - but it won’t be a coronation. The USA has to earn it, against Canada. They do that by setting up enough space so that the Eagles’ pace has room to move; not getting into a bash ‘em macho-fest; executing the controllables (lineouts, penalty moves, restarts); never giving up on defense.

Canada has a plan to beat them, you know that, and it likely involves ruining the Eagles’ carefully-laid plans, and for once, right at the right time, the USA if fielding a team fully prepared to handle it.

See highlights of the last time these two teams faced each other (if you don't see the video, refresh). See the NACRA 7s schedule above (click on image to enlarge). Live webstreaming of the NACRA 7s, with men, GRR Editor Alex Goff providing play-by-play, will be at www.usarugbytv.com.