The difficulty about USA Rugby’s men’s college 7s championships is its size.

With 24 teams, and six pools of four, you basically have to win your pool to get into the Cup Quarterfinals.

If there was field space and more time, perhaps a 24-team bracket leading to a Round of 16 (and so seven games for the teams at the end of the bracket) would make sense. But we don’t have time and space, so it’s a top eight - six pool winners and two pool runners-up. It’s the pool runners-up that will be tough to predict.

But predict we shall. Here’s what we see in the pools and how the brackets might fall:

 

Pool A

Central Washington

Nevada

North Texas

San Diego State

SD State has been working with Ian Denham and the Aztecs boast some big-time talent. They have a shot at this pool, but really this is Central Washington’s pool to lose. The Wildcats are very polished as a 7s unit, and have been for some years. We like their personnel, and their approach, and they are consistently good.

 

Pool B

Colorado State

St. Mary’s

Texas State

West Virginia

WVU won the Big XII and could well surprise. They’ve got some runners and they can play really good defense, but St. Mary’s has our vote. Yes we know they haven’t been playing much 7s - doesn’t matter. They have an enormous pool of talent, lots of pace and athleticism, and being a good 15s team does sometimes translate, especially when you’re one of the best open-field attack 15s teams in the country.

 

Pool C

AIC

Bowling Green

Mississippi State

Wisconsin

AIC is favored here, without much reservation. Bowling Green has a wonderful 7s history, but they don’t have the out-and-outpace of AIC, and no team this side of Kutztown has been working harder this spring to do well in 7s. Mississippi State is a tough team with good defense. They could pull off a few upsets.

 

Pool D

Arizona State

Cal Poly 

Iowa

Texas A&M

We really aren’t sure who to pick in this, as we said. But in the end we’re leaning toward Arizona State. It’s just that their performances in the fall were so strong, event though they didn’t actually win their qualifiers, they came second twice, and for some time they have been targeting this tournament as a place where they can make a national splash. We agree.

 

Pool E

Arkansas

Central Florida

Lindenwood

Stony Brook

Well this team is enormously difficult to call. We’ve profiled Lindenwood in this one, but this is one of those pools where we could get a tie, or three teams at 2-1. It’s just one of those things. Let’s go with Lindenwood, but anyone here could finish first or last.

 

Pool F

Davenport

Miami of Ohio

Sacramento State

Utah

We profiled Utah in this pool, and there’s a certain amount of crazy sense that a program still figuring itself out can win this pool. Capped 7s Eagle Nu’u Punimata is helping the team, which is a boost for them, and they have players who can punish turnovers. But Davenport isn’t a slouchy team, Miami and Sacramento State both have big, powerful runners. So we’ll go with Utah, but with reservations.

 

So let’s say those predictions will work out:

CWU, St. Mary’s, AIC, Arizona State, Lindenwood, and Utah. Who fills out the 7th and 8th spots? Well, in this format it’s not necessarily the 2nd-place team in the most competitive pool that gets the wild card, but the team that finishes second in a pool where they can rack up some big scores.

So who can score big? Honestly, there’s no way to know. Not enough of the teams have played each other. We kind of like San Diego State’s chances as staying close to CWU and getting a good points difference. We’re kind of thinking Cal Poly has the potential to do the same.

But in the end this will be the thought in the backs of the minds of every coach - if we can't win, we've got to score as much as possible to make it close, and we have to win all the other games by a large margin. Every team in this group has the potential to win a big game. Every team of these 24 could make it to the quarterfinals.