There's the little matter, Saturday, of the DIAA Men's final between UC Davis and Central Florida.

There's really no way to predict how this game will go as the teams involved really have had so little crossover. One of the upshots of a more formalized DIAA conference setup is that there are a lot fewer road trips for these teams. So it's rare that a team crosses over to play those from another conference until the playoffs.

 What is clear is that both Davis and UCF had small struggles early in the season, and started to build from there. That's trackable from their comments throughout the year (Pac West articles) and (SIRC articles). It's also trackable through results. Davis barely beat Chico State on January 24 18-15, but thrashed those self-same Wildcats in the Pac West playoffs. UCF lost to Florida Atlantic September 20, but five months later beat FAU by 92 points. 

Neither team is particularly fancy. They win their scrums and lineouts, they like to run their big forwards up the 1 and 2 channels, and they have some guys who can run out on the perimeter who can score.

That's it. In the end can it come down to the level of competition? Eh, we can't even know that, to be honest. If we at GRR had the budget to fly around and watch all of these teams, or film them, then we'd know for sure. It does seem, based on playoff results, that the Heart of America is pretty darned good, with three teams that are close to the top level. It does seem, based on Arkansas' defeat of Long Beach State, that the Gold Coast Conference is not strong once you get past the top couple of teams, thus leaving the 49ers unsure how to respond to a tough, physical team that didn't back down.

Central Florida had their struggles in their conference, and yet blasted through the SIRC playoffs and the national playoffs, too. We expected that, because we've seen Central Florida win at the top level before. Maybe that's it. The Knights of UCF have been there before, beating Lindenwood two years ago, and Arizona in the final last year. They don't back down from anyone, and are intimidated by no one. They don't care if you like their pattern of play or not, they are just going to pound on you until you capitulate. And UCF executes.  

So for Davis to beat them, it looks as if they need to defend like they've not defended all season. They won't be able to make just a couple of tackles and get a turnover. They will have to make tackle, upon tackle, upon tackle. And the thing is, even that isn't enough, because if you make those tackles, and give up just a little ground behind the gainline, that ground will grow and grow, and the next thing you know, you're tackling a UCF player as he falls over the goal line for a try.

But is Davis can indeed frustrate UCF and stop them enough to force them to kick, then you might have something. Davis has a very good deep three and they counter well. If they can get the ball back, they might do some damage.

All of that, then is for me to say that I don't know who will win, and I don't know who had the tougher road to the final, and I don't know who has the right game plan (although I think I can figure out what those game plans are). So I fall back on history. Central Florida has had some very good rugby players on their team in the last few years, but their success is based more on a philosophy and a total buy-in from the players, than "get it to that guy and he will score." That's crucial, because "that guy" usually graduates after a time, and then what do you have?

For Central Florida, you have everything you had before, just with different players, and I think, ultimately, that's enough.