Since BYU joined the national playoffs in 2004, the Cougars have made ten major championship games.

The only years they missed were 2004, when they were eliminated in the DI quarters by eventual finalists Cal Poly, and 2005, when they were beaten in the semis by Utah. After that, the Cougars made five straight DI finals, two DIA finals, and now three straight Varsity Cup finals.

Of those ten championship games, BYU has faced Cal nine times, with only 2012 missing when Cal didn’t participate in DIA and there was no Varsity Cup.

So, no, it’s not a surprise that Cal faces BYU in the Varsity Cup Final Saturday at Rio Tinto Stadium in Sandy, Utah. It’s been Cal or BYU since there was a Cal or BYU. The Bears won the DI title from 2004-2008, lost to BYU in 2009, and regained the title in 2010. Then both switched to DIA, where Cal won in 2011 over BYU, and then the Cougars won in the wildest final of all over Arkansas State.

That started a run of dominance for the Cougars, which won tight contests with Cal in two Varsity Cup finals. Final tally since BYU got into national playoffs, Cal seven championships, BYU four, and 2015 to be decided.

This year, it looks like it might be a third straight Varsity Cup title for the Cougars. Certainly the results of the two teams are comparable enough for anyone to expect a close game. 

v. UCLA

Cal 18-12, BYU 45-16

v. Arizona State

Cal 100-17, BYU 72-8

v. Cal Poly

Cal 76-3, BYU 74-5

v. Utah

Cal 82-5, BYU 76-31

v. St. Mary’s

Cal 27-20, BYU 32-28, 35-26

The average scores for these results against common opponents are virtually the same.

Cal was more impressive against Utah only in that the Bears defense does a superb job of identifying an opponent’s strength and squashing it down. BYU v Utah is a game rife with emotion, whereas Cal v Utah is all cold execution. Cold won out.

Cal can win because their set piece functions very nicely. They have a superb kicking game, especially in the open field, and even though they miss Seamus Kelly in their backline this year, their pack, especially their tight five, is superb, and their second row combination of James Kondrat and Sione Sina, bolstered by the all-everything flanker Alec Gletzer, is the keystone around which this Cal team is built.

BYU can win because they can execute at set piece time a little bit, too. In addition, with Jonny Linehan and Luke Mocke, they have two heady players who can change the momentum of the game with their kicking. 

The Cougars will welcome back captain and all-everything flanker Kyle Sumsion, who flew back from South America, where he was playing with the USA Selects, to lead his team (Dan Hubert will be the game day captain, however). That’s a huge addition. Sumsion and Gletzer are, arguable, the two best loose forwards in college rugby. They are physical, aggressive over the ball, and leaders. Sumsion is a bit more of a ball carrier, but not much.

But what BYU has shown more than anything is an ability to turn a defensive situation into an offensive situation. Maybe that’s not a concern for Cal, because the Bears know how to protect the ball, but it’s a concern for everyone else. What the Cougars have to watch is their tendency to get into penalty trouble. Usually they are so good, so powerful over the ball, they can overcome a few penalties. Against St. Mary’s that almost bit them in the tail. Against Cal, it might actually bite them.

So with all that said, our pick would be predicated on goalkicking. If BYU commits penalties and Cal hits their kicks early, that might be enough. But Cal’s goalkicking has not been as consistent as it probably needs to be, and if those chances are missed, that will be enough for the Cougars.

Our pick? BYU by six.