A Look Ahead at a Wide Open D1A Playoffs Picture
A Look Ahead at a Wide Open D1A Playoffs Picture
The D1A playoffs are fast approaching and, as everyone knows, the the rankings have a lot to do with how they get populated.
First off, a quick reminder: D1A is the organization under CRAA that runs what is the most high-level collegiate playoff in men's college rugby. NCR is separate and NCR runs their own D1 playoff in the fall. That playoff was won by Brown over Queens.
It can get complicated because there are teams playing under NCR and teams playing under D1A/CRAA that are in the same conference. As a result these teams pay to both dues structures.
Column: The College Dues Double-Dip and What to Do About It
So if you don't see a college that you expect to see in this list, then it may well be that the college team is part of NCR. One major example here would be Big 10 champion Indiana, which NCR snapped up when the team was between coaches.
The Structure
On the weekend of April 8 there will be quarterfinals split mostly along geographic lines. The top two seeded teams from the East and the West will receive a bye to the semifinals. A conference winner gets a place in the playoffs, but no guarantee of a home game.
On April 15 the quarterfinals will be held at the home field of the top seeds, and the semis will be April 22. No games April 29, and then the final will be part of the CRAA Championship Weekend in Houston May 5-6, which also features D1A and D1 Elite/NIRA 7s tournaments.
The Seeds
In the East, Navy is surely the #1 seed. It's possible they could drop if they lost to Army this coming weekend, but the Midshipmen did beat Army already so their body of work—undefeated in Rugby East, beating Cal, 14-0 overall—might well keep them at the top. The #2 seed in the East may well now be Lindenwood after the Lions beat Life this past weekend. However, that's up to the official D1A rankings, which should be worked on this week.
The other four teams from the East should be Army, Davenport and either Lindenwood or Life ... plus ... Well it could be Penn State, but it's likely they need to log some wins. We'll address more about this in a second.
In the West, until this past weekend Central Washington was the clear top seed in the West. But the Wildcats' one-point loss to BYU put that in doubt. Our take on this is that CWU probably keeps that status. Why? Well it was their only loss and it was by a point. BYU hasn't been perfect, losing to Life and Saint Mary's. Cal? Sure. They lost to Navy, but only by five points. They beat Army. Saint Mary's? The Gaels have been a bit shaky this year and they lost to CWU and also lost to a UBC team that Central beat (and Cal didn't play).
So you see it's somewhat wide open. Cal's current issue is, despite the military academies, strength of schedule. Cal has played four Top 20 teams and two Top 10 teams. BYU is at four and three, Saint Mary's has the same split as Cal but also has played UBC, Oxford, and Cambridge. Central Washington has a top-heavy schedule with three Top 10 teams, plus UBC, and only one other Top 20 team.
Also slated to join the playoffs, but not challenge for a bye, will be Cal Poly and Texas A&M. The other team in the conversation is Arizona, but with A&M expected to take a western slot, Arizona may well go on the road (again!) to play in the East. This will spice up the eastern side of the bracket to be sure.
Key Playoff Deciders
This coming weekend, Arizona is at Central Washington, Davenport is at Life, Cal hosts Saint Mary's, Cal Poly is at UCLA, and Navy is at Army. BYU hosts Cal a week later; this week the Cougars play Utah and UVU in games they are heavily favored to win. Central Washington hosts Lindenwood April 1.
Already Red River champions, Texas A&M is slated to host Cal Poly March 28.
So here's how this shakes out: Navy secures the #1 ranking and #1 seed if they beat Army, and could well remain so even if they lose. Life needs a strong performance against Davenport and a poor performance from Lindenwood against Arkansas State to inch up. Cal vs Saint Mary's probably decides one of the bye teams in the West. (This game, by the way, was moved from Saint Mary's to Cal because the heavy rains in California have over-stressed the Gaels' field.) If Cal beats Saint Mary's and then loses to BYU, you could argue that your top two are BYU and Central Washington.
Cal Poly is in an excellent position to secure a playoff position with wins over UCLA and A&M.
The Bracket Matchups
Pin us down and we'd say Davenport at Army and Arizona at Life in the East, and with Navy and Lindenwood getting the bye. In the West we'd say Central Washington keeps that bye and really any one of Cal, BYU, or Saint Mary's. Two of those would face off with Texas A&M and Cal Poly.
But all of this is wide open, and in fact this seems to be the most wide open D1A competition in years, perhaps ever. As many as eight teams have a serious argument that they can win it all.
