D2 Playoffs Shake Up Expectations
D2 Playoffs Shake Up Expectations
As we say at Goff Rugby Report all the time, ranking D2 college rugby teams is difficult because most teams don't play outside their conference until the playoffs start.
So you can certainly have the potential for upsets that aren't really upsets—teams ranked (or seeded) lower than others but were strong all along. But you also have the potential for upsets where there's an objective underdog and overdog.
This weekend in the NCR D2 men's championships as the Round of 16 and Quarterfinals were held Friday and Sunday.
No Surprise
GRR's #1-ranked IUP made it through to the semifinals. But there is something of a surprise in that they really, really had to work for it. Yes they beat Marist (GRR #12) 41-18, but Marist was leading 50 minutes in and giving the Hawks all sorts of trouble. The turning point came when the game started to degenerate in discipline. Marist got three yellow cards in the space of five minutes and were down to 12 players.
At that point IUP was smart enough to close it out.
RJ Beach was outstanding for IUP.
Vermont (GRR #7) moved on to the quarterfinals also with an excellent showing from their defense over Miami. That put the two teams against each other in the quarterfinals.
It was very windy in Pennsylvania on Sunday and the wind certainly had an effect on this game. IUP opted to go against the wind in the first half reasoning that since they were a pretty good second-half team anyway, they might make it a bit easier on themselves. Vermont used the wind smartly and flyhalf Finlay Hutton's boot set up their attack. A superb little grubber produced one try and Vermont entered the break up 17-5.
IUP Head Coach said little at halftime, as the team leadership said what needed to be said.
"We like to kick and put pressure on that way and kicking against that wind was like kicking against a brick wall," said Erwin. "But we knew we just needed to stick to the plan. We'd been behind against Marist but we knew then we could still play rugby."
Giving up second-half points at IUP means you're running the hills, so they are used to locking the game in the final 40. A massive, bullocking run from prop Mike Mehalic covered 55 meters and seemed to light a fire under the Hawks. Beach was against strong and IUP scored four tries to outscore UVM 22-7 in the second half and win 27-24.
Unfortunately, Miami opted not to play the consolation game with Marist. This is a shame for both as seedings and even rankings often need those games. Marist, especially, was hoping to use that consolation game as proof that the Tri-State Conference deserves a bit more respect.
Who Are These Guys?
Mira Costa (#23) blasted through MSU Mankato (#21) 74-31 playing with power and speed. That put them up against another team with plenty of power and speed—Principia. The #3-ranked Thunder Chickens won big over #9 Northern Iowa, again, this time 67-7.
Principia Head Coach Philip Kellerman came in to coach the Thunder Chickens this year and told GRR he was "blissfully unaware" of the other teams in the division and as such has coached with no expectations. As a result he has pushes his charges to continually improve.
Going into the playoffs, Kellerman said, "the team is really starting to function well as a unit. We know that our team still has a lot of room for improvement and that is all we are focused on."
They did well. Principia took an 7-0 lead on a try by Kamshen Moss within five minutes. Mira Costa answered but a key Mateo Ferreyra try off a scrum put them ahead 17-10. The teams traded scores through the first 20 minutes, but as the first half wore on the Principia defense forced a series of turnovers and a tries from Celino Petersen followed by a pair of tries from Andrew Matoka made it 47-17 at the break.
With freshman Francisco Alessio leading the Principia alignment and being vocal in doing so, the Thunder Chickens were through.
Old History
Norwich getting past Georgetown was not much of a surprise even though it was #8 over #2, mostly because Norwich had been ranked ahead of Georgetown for much of the fall. Pulling away 41-27 the Cadets had to feel good about their chances of reaching the semis once more.
NC State (#5), meanwhile, was back in the division they won just a few years ago and took charge over #15 Virginia 60-19. In the quarterfinal, it was a supremely evenly-matched game, and one where the point of contact was a big part of it all.
Norwich slammed into the tackles and NC State hung in there. The Wolfpack's Tom Hoyng was very good at fullback and scored a try, while prop Ibrahim Herb also go over the tryline. Super sub Jackson Shosola also scored, and two of those tries were converted.
Down 19-12, Norwich scored at the death to make it 19-17, and had the conversion gone over the game would have gone to overtime. The conversion drifted wide and NC State was through.
In this bracket the consolation game wasn't played so that the UVA students could attend the memorial service for the three student athletes killed on a school trip the previous weekend. The Georgetown team agreed it would not be right to insist that Virginia play on that day and the game was abandoned.
The Great Midwest
The GMW remains one of the strongest conferences in the division and in the quarterfinals we saw two Great Midwest teams facing off.
Marquette (#4) unleashed their excellent defense over #17 UNC-Charlotte in the Round of 16 to move on 36-14. Loyola, ranked #11 and the third-placed team out of the conference slammed a very good Auburn side (#6) 49-15.
So that set up a meeting of these two teams that had met in the GMW semifinals. In that game Marquette won 36-0. So certainly Marquette was favored, but since that game Loyola, which has undergone coaching changes and depth worries, has drastically improved. They beat Wisconsin-Whitewater a week later to finish 3rd. They shut out Washington University 68-0 in the first round of the NCR playoffs, and then defeated Auburn.
A lot of that was dependent on self belief.
"I told the guys you have to believe in yourself again," said Head Coach Sal Carfagno, a recent Loyola player who was drafted in to help with the team after Lance Houia took a position with MTSU. Carfagno says he relies heavily on the leadership group and that it's the players that have done the work. "But they had to dig deep and say 'we are a good rugby team.'"
Coming up on their 30th Anniversary as a rugby team at Loyola, the group seemed to find their mojo and hit Marquette for four tries—which is four more than they scored against them last time—and ran out 28-21 winners.
"I woke up this morning and had to pinch myself—a lot of emotions—this team has gone through so much," said Carfagno.
They have more to go through now as they are in the semis.
So Now What?
First off, some accountability. We at GRR ran some predictions for the Round of 16 in which we made four definitive picks: IUP, Principia, Miami, and Marquette (three-for-four in those), bailed completely on one matchup (Mankato vs Mira Costa), and leaned toward Auburn, Norwich, and NC State.
So that's a 5-2-1 record.
As for rankings, including the two consolation games played, there were 14 games played over the weekend. In those, the higher-ranked team (based on GRR rankings) won nine times and the lower-ranked team won five.
On December 3 we will see the semifinals with IUP taking on NC State and Principia facing Loyola. It will be a tough ask for Loyola to contain a speedy Principia side, while the IUP vs NCSU game promises to be close.
