Congratulations to Scott Nies who one last week’s S&C Package from Universal Sports Strength & Conditioning and Kaleb Boleyn who currently sits atop the season standings.

This week, we’re giving away a $10 Rugby Imports < https://www.rugbyimports.com/> Gift Card! To enter, submit your picks here < https://forms.gle/dQYpMDA6etdsUEKy8>.

What Does the Spread Mean?

A lot of people see TEAM A by 7.5 and believe that means the model predicts TEAM A will win by 7.5 points. That is not quite the case. The model is telling us that there is a 50% chance TEAM A will win by more than 7.5 points and a 50% chance TEAM A will win by less than 7.5 points, draw, or lose. The further the margin gets from the 7.5-point spread, the lower the statistical probability is of that outcome. 

More Volatility in 2021

Versus our historical data, we are seeing more points scored per match than in past years. This indicates that compared to pre-COVID times, defenses are not as dominant. There seems to be a correlation between attacking dominance and greater variance in outcomes. One metric we track to measure how will the model is doing at predicting games is the SPREAD - ACTUAL POINT DIFFERENCE. While the mean for that metric has been trending down as the model learns from each week’s games, the Standard Deviation has held constant around 20: around double what it was in historic data.

For our Pick ’Em players, taking time to know the teams, current form, weather, injuries, etc., there are big opportunities to take advantage of the current volatility in the model.

Week 7 Featured Matches

Army at Kutztown
Silverbacks Power Index: Kutztown by 6.5
Goff Rugby: Army by 11

St. Bonaventure at Penn State
Silverbacks Power Index: Penn State by 13.5
Goff Rugby: Penn State by 12

Western Michigan at Louisville
Silverbacks Power Index: Louisville by 2.5
Goff Rugby: Western Michigan by 6

Clemson at Tennessee
Silverbacks Power Index: Tennessee by 22.5
* We think Clemson’s rating is artificially low due to historic results in the Mid-South Conference. See this week’s Power Index article for more info. This should be a great game to take points against the Index.
Goff Rugby: Clemson by 2

Notre Dame at Bowling Green
Silverbacks Power Index: Bowling Green by 16.5
Goff Rugby: Bowling Green by 7

Nazareth at Buffalo
Silverbacks Power Index: Buffalo by 17.5
Goff Rugby: Nazareth by 8

Fordham at AIC
Silverbacks Power Index: AIC by 8.5
Goff Rugby: Fordham by 12

Indiana at Iona (Pick’Em!)
Silverbacks Power Index: Indiana by 0.5
Goff Rugby: Indiana by 9