What's Up Next in the Pacific Nations Cup
What's Up Next in the Pacific Nations Cup
The Pacific Nations Cup moves to Japan for the everyone except Tonga and Fiji, and those two teams will be in-country soon enough.
With one more round of pool games left we know where we sit, for the most part. Following the USA's 28-15 defeat of Canada and Samoa's 43-17 defeat of Tonga here's how the standings look:
| PNC Pool A | |||||||||
| Team | W | T | L | PF | PA | PD | BT | BL | Pt |
| Fiji | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42 | 16 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Samoa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Tonga | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PNC Pool B | |||||||||
| Team | W | T | L | PF | PA | PD | BT | BL | Pts |
| Japan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| USA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Canada | 0 | 2 | 0 | 43 | 83 | -40 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Canada is guaranteed to be in the 5th-6th game on September 14 at Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium in Tokyo. Most likely they will play Tonga. However, mathematically, Tonga is not guaranteed to be 3rd in their pool but they'd have to beat Fiji by 27 points to avoid that. More likely, Fiji, despite the fact they will be playing Tonga in Tonga on Thursday (our time), will win their second game in a row.
Pool A looks like it will pan out with Fiji in 1st, Samoa in 2nd, and Tonga in 3rd.
In Pool B, then, Saturday, September 7 at 6AM ET (it's on Peacock), the USA plays Japan to decide who wins Pool B. Simple—win and you're #1. If the USA tied with a bonus point that Japan doesn't get, then they're #1. Any other scenario and Japan wins the pool.
Next up, after that, are the semifinals: #1 Pool A vs #2 Pool B September 14 at 6:05AM ET, and #1 Pool B vs #2 Pool A September 15 at 2:05AM ET. Both games at Prince Chichibu and both games on Peacock.
The losing teams play for 3rd on September 21 and the winning teams play for the championship on the same day.
For the USA, as Head Coach Scott Lawrence said in August, the big part of this is games. From August 17 through September 21 they will have been together for five weeks and played four meaningful test matches against tough teams.
How will it shake out? Right now Japan is favored to win this tournament. Going by rankings and form the USA should play Fiji in the semis and then it's a question as to whether they make the final or the 3rd-4th game. The Eagles have no defeated Fiji since 1999. They have not beaten Japan since 2015 (23-18 in Sacramento), although that Japanese win streak is only two games. That USA victory, however, is the only USA win in the last eight test matches dating back to 2008.
But all of this matters because these are rankings tests, and also a dress rehearsal for the qualifiers for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. The PNC will be the qualifier tournament for RWC 2027, and with Fiji and Japan already qualified, the top finishers among USA, Canada, Samoa, and Tonga will fill three spots at the 2027 event in Australia.
The one team that doesn't get a spot will also have other playoffs to get into the World Cup.