Week 12 Power Index Powered by Silverbacks Elite Rugby

Do you think there should be bigger swings based on certain results? You’re not alone.

Army and Ohio State upset Lindenwood and Indiana respectively, and yet the Index has the Lions and Hoosiers still ranked above their vanquishers. Meanwhile, Davenport's Rating remained unchanged despite a brave performance in a one-point loss to Life. We hear this is a bit unsatisfying for those teams (and their fans) who are accustom to a bigger bump from coach and media polls.

The Power Index hedges its bets: some people think it is to conservative. So, should the it be altered? Probably. We’ve previously discussed that the Index appears to over-handicap home team advantage. With a more comprehensive dataset from 2021-22 than any year previous, the boffins on our analytics teams can isolate other variables to yield more precise ratings than just Big Wins, Close Wins, & Draws. We plan to poor through the numbers in May when we complete this year’s dataset and consider changes.

Join this conversation on the Goff Rugby Facebook page. Let us know what variables we should consider and value in our Ratings. Should brave losses to good teams be grounds for advancement? Should we increase the margin by which teams can rise and fall for a given result? How would you want to see the Power Index progress?

The Power Index Picks the NCR D1 Playoffs

Fans have been asking for it. The Power Index has digested the match ups. Here are its forecasts for the NCR D1 Tournaments.

The computer fancies the Bonnies and St. Joseph’s in the DI and DIAA brackets respectively. Where might the Index have it wrong? We reckon Mary Washington and Queens might be underrated because there preseason rating was not built on historical results like the former D1A teams.

A Championship appearance for Boise State is also a tasty proposition. The Northwest Conference does not give us data in the regular season about how it stacks up against the East Coast teams. We want the crossover data! 

CURR RK	Δ RK	PREV RK	SCHOOL	COMP	Week 8 Results	PREV RAT	CURR RAT	Δ RAT
1	1	2	California	D1A		97.29	97.29	0
2	1	3	Life	D1A	Close Win vs Davenport	96.94	96.94	0
3	1	4	St. Mary's	D1A		95.51	95.51	0
4	-3	1	Lindenwood	D1A	Close Loss vs Army	97.64	94.95	-2.69
5	0	5	Central Washington	D1A		91.68	91.68	0
6	0	6	Army	NCR1	Close Win vs Lindenwood	87.22	89.91	2.69
7	0	7	Arkansas State	D1A		86.95	86.95	0
8	0	8	Navy	NCR1	Big Win vs Dartmouth	85.97	85.97	0
9	0	9	Arizona	D1A		85.5	85.5	0
10	0	10	BYU	D1A		85.06	85.06	0
11	1	12	UCLA	D1A		76.25	76.25	0
12	1	13	St. Bonaventure	NCR1		75.87	75.87	0
13	-2	11	Indiana	D1A	Close Loss vs Indiana	78.33	75.06	-3.27
14	0	14	Grand Canyon	D1A		74.29	74.29	0
15	0	15	Kutztown	NCR1	Big Win vs Mount St. Mary's	74.17	74.17	0
16	0	16	Davenport	D1A	Close Loss vs Life	73.98	73.98	0
17	0	17	Iona	NCR1		70.23	70.23	0
18	0	18	Penn State	NCR1		69.46	69.46	0
19	1	20	Ohio State	D1A	Close Win vs Indiana	66.05	69.33	3.28
20	-1	19	Dartmouth	NCR1	Big Loss vs Navy	67.41	67.41	0
21	0	21	Northeastern	NCR1		65.9	65.9	0
22	0	22	Queens University	NCR1		65.21	65.21	0
23	0	23	Colorado State	D1A		64.52	64.52	0
24	0	24	Iowa Central CC	NCR1		63.65	63.65	0
25	0	25	Texas A&M	D1A	Big Win vs Texas	63	63	0
26	0	26	Boston College	NCR1		62.52	62.52	0
27	0	27	Colorado	D1A		62.19	62.19	0
28	0	28	Notre Dame College	NCR1		61.47	61.47	0
29	0	29	Baylor	D1A		60.52	60.52	0
30	0	30	Fairfield	NCR1		60.34	60.34	0
31	5	36	Bowling Green	D1AA	Close Win vs CIN, Big Win vs WMU	58.32	60.26	1.94
32	-1	31	Adrian College	NCR2		59.42	59.42	0
33	-1	32	Mary Washington	NCR1		59.38	59.38	0
34	-1	33	Tennessee	D1AA	Big Win vs Georgia	59.37	59.37	0
35		34	Utah Valley	D1A		58.89	58.89	0
36	2	38	Michigan State	D1A	Big Win vs Illinois	55.81	58.88	3.07
37	2	39	Brown	NCR1	Big Win vs Fordham	54.82	58.62	3.8
38	-1	37	Mount St. Mary's	NCR1	Big Loss vs Kutztown	56.36	56.36	0
39		35	Fordham	NCR1	Big Loss vs Brown	58.64	54.85	-3.79
40	0	40	American International	NCR1		54.76	54.76	0