Can the Eagle Women Make the Quarterfinals? Yes, and Here's Why
Can the Eagle Women Make the Quarterfinals? Yes, and Here's Why
Now at 1-1 in the Rugby World Cup, the USA women's team is still in with a decent chance at a quarterfinal spot.
The Women's Rugby World Cups have never had a quarterfinals—they tracked teams into a semifinal, 5th-place semifinal, and 9th-place semifinal pathway. So we can't say that missing the quarterfinals would be a first-ever ... but we can say that missing the QFs would guarantee a worst-ever finish for the Eagles, because then their best finish would be 9th. Here is how the USA has done over history (with their won-loss record):
1991: 1st (4-0)
1994: 2nd (4-1)
1998: 2nd (4-1)
2002: 7th (2-2)
2006: 5th (4-1)
2010: 5th: (3-2)
2014: 6th (2-3)
2017: 4th (2-3)
We're here today to talk about what the chances are for the Eagles to make that final eight, and the chances are pretty good.
#1 Path to QFs:
Let's get this out of the way first. If the USA beats or ties Canada, they will go to the quarterfinals. This would be true even though France is likely to beat Japan and finish pool play 2-1. A victory over Canada would leave three teams at 2-1, and a tie would leave the USA at 1-1-1. It is extremely unlikely that the other two pools will produce a 3rd-place team with a similar record. Fiji is 1-1 in Pool C but has yet to play France, and the French should beat them comfortably. Wales and Australia are 1-1 in Pool A, and actually we expect that game to be close, even a tie. More likely is one team will win and the losing team will be 1-2.
More Likely Scenarios
Based on results this year, we don't envision the USA beating Canada. You never know, but based on current form, let's assume the Eagles lose this game. So here's what needs to happen if they lose to the Canadians.
USA loses and gets bonus points for four tries and for a close loss. That gives the Eagles a 1-2 record with 7 points. Jackpot! Neither Australia nor Wales can get to 7 points if they lose (they play each other so someone is likely to lose). If they tie AND both score four tries (unlikely as they are both averaging 15 points per game), the USA would still win on points difference, as the Eagles' worst PD in this scenario would be -6, and both Australia and Wales are worse than that. Of course, if you tie, your PD doesn't change, so Wales, at -41, would remain -41.
USA loses and gets one bonus point. That puts the USA at 1-2 and 6 points. Again, if Australia and Wales tie but one of them doesn't score four tries, then all the USA needs to do is make sure they don't get completely hammered. If Wales is the team to get four tries, and Australia doesn't, Australia finishes 3rd in Pool A, and the USA would need to lose by less than 23. If Wales is 3rd, the margin of error is 42. If, somehow, Wales and Australia do tie and score four tries each, then we need to look at Pool C. Here Fiji plays France, as we said, and will probably end up 1-2 with 4 points and way behind the USA. If, somehow, Fiji gets two bonus points in that loss, they would still lose out to the USA on points difference (Fiji is currently at -61). If South Africa beats England with a bonus point (yeah, we know, won't happen) they could, conceivably bypass the USA. But it's not a realistic scenario.
USA loses with no bonus points. That makes the USA 1-2 and 5 points. This is where you lean on the most likely scenario. Fiji will likely lose to France by about 30. South Africa will probably lose to England by about 45. The USA can be passed. As we said, Wales and Australia are very close. But if either loses and gets only the one bonus point, the Eagles will probably be above them due to a superior points difference. Let's say Australia loses to Wales by 1, scoring two tries. The Eagles could be seeded higher if they lose to Canada by 23.
So ...
Good news. The USA is probably the most likely team to make the quarterfinals as the best third-place team. The key thing is even if the game is going badly, they need to keep playing, keep the score as close as possible, and work for a bonus point or two. The true nightmare scenario is a 50-point blowout. But that's not exactly expert analysis—"don't lose by a lot" should be first on anyone's list.
