It’s yet another showdown of top single-schools as #5 Xavier hosts #7 Greenwich.

This game has more to it than just some sort of tri-state bragging rights. The seedings for the Boys HS National Invitational Championship in Charlotte, NC could well be at stake.

First, though, the teams. Xavier comes off competitive 31-14 loss to #1 Gonzaga after a successful tour to the West Coast where they beat the San Diego Mustangs and lost to New Plymouth out of New Zealand.

Xavier brings a smart, aggressive attack to this week’s contest, with James Tweedy playing very well of late at flyhalf, and Matt Bergstol providing a physical presence up the middle.

But Greenwich is looking to unseat their rivals. They pushed Gonzaga in a shortened final of the Jesuit Classic 18-12, and Head Coach Joe Kelly said that with his team’s fitness, he would have liked to have seen how a full-length game would have worked out.

“We’ve been working a lot on our fitness because we remember what the NIT was like last year,” said Kelly. “By the third day we were exhausted, and we realized to compete in that tournament we had to be able to last. So playing in the Jesuit Classic was huge for us because it tested us against good opposition over more than one day.”

Jack Weigold has been a huge attacking threat for Greenwich, which also continues to get good performances from scrumhalf Soh Nakayama. But Kelly would likely point to prop Tom Williams as the player who has made the most impact with the least notice. A co-captain, he just does what needs to be done without looking for glory. It’s that type of player that has made Greenwich go form being really good, to potential excellent.

“We feel confident we have the team this year to compete at the national level,” said Kelly. “We love playing Xavier, and this is a good opportunity for us to play another tough team.”

It is indeed, and this is what it means:

The seeding for the NIT is probably close to being settled. There’s little doubt that Gonzaga will be #1, as they don’t have any games left on their schedule that would hurt that ranking, and Penn would need to crush it against Royal Irish this weekend, which would be a surprise. Penn could fall from #2 given the difficulty of the game ahead of them, while Jesuit is somewhat secure at #3, possibly #2 if Penn falters, but also possibly much lower if everyone else plays really, really well (and especially if Granite Bay loses badly to Danville, thus putting Jesuit’s loss to Granite Bay in a different light).

With Fallbrook not playing in Charlotte, the next-highest-ranked team is Xavier, followed costly by Herriman, and then Greenwich. Notre Dame De La Salette, Charlotte Catholic, Thomas Aquinas, Brother Rice, and Fishers have all lost to the teams listed above, or others a little lower in the rankings, leaving the teams above as probably your seeds #1-#6. The question is, in what order? 

As we stated, Gonzaga should hold on to #1.

Penn plays this week’s Game of the Century in Indiana against HS club #2 Royal Irish. Should they lose, Penn could slip to #3, and they lose badly, then they could slip a bit more, but not out of the top 7. If they win, Penn might ave an argument to bypass Gonzaga, but Gonzaga beat Royal Irish already, so it would have to be a pretty impressive win.

But when you get down to it, it’s likely Penn v Royal Irish will be close, and that won’t be enough to shift Penn too far one way or the other.

But #3-#8 in the Goff Rugby Report rankings are in flux this weekend (and hence the NIT seeds #3-#6). And the big reason is Greenwich v Xavier. Should one of these teams win big, they could move up as high as #3, and possibly #2. Conversely, a big loss, coupled with Westlake doing well in the Texas playoffs and Fallbrook winning big over Back Bay in the SoCal playoffs could see things get turned on their heads.

But it all hinges, ultimately, on Greenwich v Xavier.

 

This, then, is how we see the NIT seedings possibly working out:

1. Gonzaga

2. Penn

3. Jesuit

4. Herriman

5. and 6. Xavier or Greenwich

7. Notre Dame de La Salette

8. Charlotte Catholic or maybe STA or Bro. Rice but let’s bet on the hometown team.

 

 

Tier II teams

St. Thomas Aquinas 

Brother Rice

Brownsburg

Fishers

 

 

For now …